MoD Artis Pabriks: It's in Russian interests to lose the war against Ukraine

"No, there were no and are no such plans in NATO. After this statement, many people attacked me, saying that, look, the Estonian Prime Minister is defending her country, but our people are doing nothing," Defence Minister Artis Pabriks is outraged by what Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said. She recently claimed that NATO plans to let Russian troops into the Baltic States and try to liberate them 180 days later. An interview with Artis Pabriks on this and Latvia's many unusual plans.

What did Latvia gain from the Madrid summit?

We got the most out of what we could have hoped for. And this maximum is what Latvia will gain in addition, not to mention NATO. On the US side, there is a promise to be in Latvia more often and in greater numbers, but the US does not agree to a permanent presence that is set in stone. So far, the US presence has been significant: one unit leaves, another one comes. There will be a greater American presence in Poland too. The units there will rotate through the Baltics, which is good, because the training will be shared by all the Baltic States and Poland.

The second major benefit: we are the only one of the Baltic States that has a written declaration with our allies to form a brigade in Latvia - on the basis of the existing group that is already here. A brigade has three to five thousand people. But the main thing, of course, is combat capability.

Did the Baltic countries have a common position at the NATO summit?

It cannot be said that there was a common position.

Why?

Because the Lithuanians and Estonians had already accepted various offers from the Allies.

We were not in the same starting position. But the Estonians - unlike us - have no divisional headquarters, they did not get what they wanted. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has spoken publicly about NATO's defense plans for the three Baltic states - allegedly to allow Russia to occupy them before liberating them after 180 days. This was an expression of her dissatisfaction with the progress made in the security talks.

So NATO had such plans?

No, there were no and are no such plans in NATO. After this statement, many people attacked me, saying that, look, the Estonian Prime Minister is defending her country, but our people are doing nothing!

So were they, as they say now, fake news? It is hard to even evaluate agitating people at this level. It sounds criminal...

If it were true, then the disclosure of such NATO plans would indeed be a criminal matter.

But there must have been someone who told her the 180-day story.

Let them deal with it themselves. Of course, the Estonians are also angry about this now. Does anyone really think that, after Kallas told her idea of the 180 days, NATO's position will suddenly change? That is completely absurd, NATO's position does not change in that way. NATO's position changes when we follow what is written (or not written) in documents, when we negotiate, when we prove our point. The Americans understood us and sided with us because we proved what we needed.

You have to understand that NATO's plans are super-secret and it is not so easy to suddenly find out something and reveal it to the whole world. Believe me, many countries called Kallas after this move and expressed their opinion, and it was not positive.

Of course, everything is not always smooth in the negotiations with NATO, and we have discussions about the training of troops - where it will take place, how it will take place and so on. Indeed, at one time, before the Russian war in Ukraine, some experts had the idea that Russia might occupy part of the territory of the Baltic States and then NATO would liberate it, and so on. But now the situation is completely different, because everybody sees what is happening in Ukraine.

Was there a perceptible change in the world's attitude towards Russia at the Madrid summit?

It could be felt. Even at the London summit, the leaders of some countries said that NATO had survived. As recently as 2010, Russia was a NATO partner. Now everyone recognizes that NATO is in the right place and right time, and that Russia is an enduring threat.

Purely emotionally: should people be afraid?

There is certainly no need to be afraid. But neither should we ignore objective dangers. After all, we do not go to bed each day afraid that someone will break into our house! We lock the door and activate the alarm. We must remember that Russia is a threat, so we must put money into security and defense.

The great thing is that Sweden and Finland are almost in NATO.

With Sweden and Finland joining NATO, we will gain strategic depth. Each country has its homework to do, and we have done it too: we will have a new military training ground. It will be located near Aizkraukle and Jēkabpils.

On Monday and Tuesday, I will be in the Prime Minister's place, I will call the ministers together and I will ask them to take responsibility for civil protection, because I am tired of making excuses for everybody. Civil protection is not my responsibility. It is not my job to look for or build bunkers. Let, for example, Mayor Staķis go and look for a place to put them.

This question is often asked on social networks: I know about what to do in the first 72 hours and what to put in the backpack, but where do I go with it? Of course, almost everybody knows what missiles we need to buy, but where do I go with the backpack? Nobody knows. Let the ministers, together with the local authorities, start focusing on this problem.

I'm sure you have something else in mind while the Prime Minister is resting... Last week he had to canvass the votes of his compatriots in the US, here in Latvia he regularly goes around to military bases. You must be hearing quite often: Kariņš is coming! And it’s not like you can throw him out of the bases either: he is a coalition partner...

I intend to say on Tuesday: we are planning a transition to universal conscription. It will, of course, be difficult.

That is, compulsory military service?

Yes, but we do not want to call it compulsory military service. I may be reproached: but you were against it before! No, I was not against it. I said: until we have exhausted all the possibilities, it does not make sense to change the system so radically.

We have now reached the limit of the power we can grow with the current system. We need more people, we have five brigades - four National Guard and one professional - which are not filled to capacity. We are fighting for it to be voluntary... We will try to reach out to the youngest ones, those who are leaving school, as early as next year.

What will be the length of service?

We will write a year in the law. There are variations: a year or half a year, i.e., if a young person wants to learn a profession related to the army or obtain a rank, he will stay for a year. There will also be money for new recruits, perhaps not very much, but so that when the boys are at home on Saturday and Sunday, they will have some money to spend. Through general conscription, we hope to increase the size of the Latvian army by at least double.

But we cannot abandon the voluntary principle and the National Guard. All that remains. If someone says he is joining the National Guard, we do not take him into the army. Every year, for three weeks, a young person undergoes training in the National Guard - that’s very good!

All this will require money.

Of course. Many countries are already starting to talk about increasing defense spending. We currently have 2.3%. But the problem is elsewhere: if we have 15,000 young people, for example, I cannot say, “Let's take them all!” Where am I going to put them? We do not need some kind of “Soviet army”, which was a pointless waste of time; we need a strong and educated army, with a smart sergeant instructor for every group, but there are not that many of them. So, at this stage too, we need to create professionals.

Sounds promising. But will our Cabinet agree?

I will report to the Cabinet of Ministers, after which it will have to be approved by the Saeima. I would like the Saeima to vote on it in August or September, and then the first draft would be in January, February. When we have 30,000 - 40,000 people trained militarily, plus the international brigade, we will be able to withstand a so-called zero-warning attack. Moreover, we will be working together with the Lithuanians and Estonians.

While Prime Minister Kariņš is away, we should do something else worthwhile.

We intend to set up a commercial company for the military. It will be like a state-owned commercial company, attracting investors and supporting Latvian entrepreneurs who are capable and interested in producing products for defense purposes. We need a powder factory, we need an ammunition factory, we need everything to be produced here, locally.

Let us talk about Ukraine. Do you think that there is any hope that Putin, the führer of a terrorist state, and his band of bandits will ever be tried as war criminals?

It is difficult to hope for that... There is no such experience with Russia. They have many supporters in the West. The only thing that could lead to a trial would be a situation where Russia has surrendered to international institutions, there has been a revolution in Russia, etc.

Putin is not alone in committing these war crimes. The brainwashed Russian people believe in him and adore him.

The Russians have been instilled with a huge sense of superiority - “we have never lost to anyone”. But I said in the NATO talks: it is actually in the Russians' interests to lose this war. When you lose, people start to look at life more realistically. The Russians have never lived by the classical principles of democracy and Western civilization; they do not know them. Because it is a completely different civilization, and that is what I am trying to tell my colleagues in Brussels.

And do the people in Brussels understand this?

Some are beginning to understand... But it is one thing to understand, quite another to do. Some people came up to me and said: you were telling us all this six months ago, we thought you were exaggerating, now we see that you were right... And there is a difference in phrasing: it is not that Ukraine must not lose, but that Ukraine must win.

I think that “doing” also applies to European aid to Ukraine: it is so allocated that it only allows the Ukrainians to survive, not to win.

Unfortunately, that is exactly the case. There is significant help from the British, the US, the Poles, the Swedes, and we are also doing what we can. I think that in the future there will be significant cooperation between these countries, plus Ukraine.

What danger do you see in the existence of the Suwalki Corridor?

There can be danger anywhere if the Russians have the ability and the will to destroy something. But it must be remembered that there is also a counterforce: the American and Polish armies in Poland, the German military and the Lithuanian army in Lithuania. I think that the pressure will ease because the EU has interpreted that certain goods can be sent from Russia.

You took part in the Lampa conversation festival. There, the Interfront Ždanoka was also scheduled to take part in a discussion. Is it normal to offer a platform to Latvia's enemies?

That is a question for the organizers of the festival. It is a common opinion (which I do not agree with) that all diverse thinkers should be given the opportunity to express themselves. Then I ask: if the Russians invade Latvia, will you run to interview the Russian occupiers to find out what they think? Maybe the organizers thought: if we invite Ždanoka, we will better understand the Russian soul?

Ždanoka would be the last person from whom we would want to learn anything about this soul... But we have already understood it even better - after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

If we have zero tolerance for Putinists, then we have nothing to talk about with Ždanoka.

Just as Latvian public opinion needs to be protected from Ždanoka and other anti-government "thinkers", there was an idea to protect the Ukrainian sky from Russian air raids. Is this idea of protecting the skies no longer relevant?

It no longer has military significance. The Russians are no longer flying over Ukraine. They are afraid. They are now firing missiles from their own territory. This means that the Ukrainians need even stronger air defenses, more HIMARS missiles, which can hit enemy targets at distances of up to 80 kilometers.

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