On April 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his annual speech on the situation in the country, issued a fundamental warning to every country to refrain from crossing the "red line" that is drawn outlining Russia's interests: "Some countries have taken up an unseemly routine where they pick on Russia for any reason, most often, for no reason at all. It is some kind of new sport of who shouts the loudest.”
Russia, on the other hand, most often does not respond at all "not just to unfriendly moves, but even to outright rudeness". Vladimir Putin: " But if someone mistakes our good intentions for indifference or weakness and intends to burn or even blow up these bridges, they must know that Russia's response will be asymmetrical, swift and tough.
Russia certainly has its own interests we defend and will continue to defend within the framework of international law, as all other states do. And if someone refuses to understand this obvious thing or does not want to conduct a dialogue and chooses a selfish and arrogant tone with us, Russia will always find a way to defend its stance."
The Russian president said: "Those behind provocations that threaten the core interests of our security will regret what they have done in a way they have not regretted anything for a long time."
However, when expressing the hope that "no one will think about crossing the “red line” with regard to Russia," Vladimir Putin did not specify what it means, but stressed: "We ourselves will determine in each specific case where it will be drawn."
It is clear that the purpose of the speech was to intimidate. The fact that the “red line” was not specified means that governments of countries that do not want to engage in a major conflict with Russia may refrain from making simply unfriendly gestures or actions because they do not know whether it is a “red line” or not. Naming which actions will lead to an "asymmetrical, swift and tough" Russian response would mean making a commitment. Then Russia could not fail to react.
Now Putin can apply the "red line" at any time. It can adapt to any idea of Putin's or any change in the international situation.
However, the answer to the question of what Putin will definitely consider to be a violation of the "red line" is important so that deciding on individual or collective retaliation against Russia's policies does not lead to an unwanted escalation of the conflict with unforeseen consequences.
Summarizing the hints expressed by those close to the Kremlin about what actions would clearly lead to Putin's "asymmetrical, swift and tough" response, it can be concluded that, first, Putin's "red line" would clearly be violated if the Ukrainian army started military activities in Donetsk or Crimea direction. Second, the line would be violated when deciding on Ukraine's accession to NATO, as well as in the event of a large number of US or NATO military instructors joining the Ukrainian army. Most likely, another "red line" drawn by Putin refers to a possible threat to the Kerch Bridge (a bridge connecting Crimea with Russia). For example, Russia could react strongly if Ukrainian or NATO warships approached the Kerch Bridge. It is possible that Putin's "red line" also means more Western intervention in a possible change of power in Belarus and Syria.
As the Russian President's speech was clearly aimed at intimidating the leaders of other countries, the EU's response must be asymmetrical. A collective approach rather than individual national action would be more productive. Russia can act "asymmetrically, swiftly and toughly" against the individual actions of one medium-sized or small Eastern European country. However, if a common policy is agreed by all EU Member States, condemning or not accepting Russia's actions, Russia's response to the EU as a whole cannot be "asymmetrical, swift and tough", as Russia will have to take action against all EU Member States, including those with whom it wishes to maintain close economic and political relations.
It is in Latvia's interests not to engage in individual campaigns, condemning or not accepting some Russian political move, but to join a common EU policy to promote Russia's return to normal interstate relations.
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