Reserve Colonel Raimonds Rublovskis: We have returned to the era of absolute geopolitics and realpolitik

A conversation with Raimonds Rublovskis, Reserve Colonel, political and security expert.

Russia calls it a "special military operation" aimed at "demilitarization and denazification" of Ukraine... What is it that we are facing now?

We are facing the logical end of a confrontation that has been going on for 15 years, which began already at the Munich conference in 2007, where Vladimir Putin announced in his speech that Russia was practically ceasing cooperation and the path towards the Western model and was accordingly beginning to build its own development model. As we recall, in 2008 there was a military conflict between Russia and Georgia. Then came the conflicts in Syria, Libya and, in 2013 and 2014, the conflict in Ukraine. In 2020, the situation was exacerbated by the events in Belarus. Last year, the concentration of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border began. What is happening now is the logical outcome of a regional and global confrontation between Russia on the one hand and the "collective West" on the other.

I think that the Russian Federation would not be taking such action if it had not made some unannounced agreements with the People's Republic of China about its support for Putin's actions in Europe. We cannot rule out the possibility that China will take advantage of these developments to try to regain full control of Taiwan.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has, however, declared his support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine...

Yes, but he has also stated that the only way to resolve the Donbas conflict is to stick to the Minsk agreements. But Ukraine has admitted that it will not abide by the Minsk agreements.

What are Russia's immediate and long-term goals - to occupy the whole of Ukraine or to split it, to kill and replace Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea, or something else?

I think that we need to distinguish between strategic and tactical objectives. Cutting off access to the sea is more of a tactical solution. The strategic objectives are to prevent Ukraine from ever becoming a member of NATO and the European Union, to reduce Ukraine's military capacity and to occupy the part of Ukraine where Russia thinks that its population, let us say, will not be too negative towards Russia. In all probability, and this is already happening, Russia will try to take over the coast of the Sea of Azov with the city of Mariupol and the coast of the Black Sea with Kherson, Odesa and Mykolaiv. They will also try to take or blockade Kyiv and possibly some other areas. But I do not think that they will try to go further into western Ukraine and Lviv.

There is probably not a single senior Latvian official who has not stressed countless times that Latvia is protected by the umbrella of Article 5 of the NATO Treaty and that our country is therefore safe. Is it safe?

The conflict has been brewing for 15 years, and Ukraine is only one territory in it. The conflict is wider and deeper.

We see that not all countries are strongly in favor of sanctions and other actions against Russia - we hear mostly from the UK, Canada, a little from France, Germany. Although Germany's position is not so aggressive. But the other countries? We hear hardly anything from Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece, Hungary.

How can one interpret Germany, which supports sanctions with one hand and even suspends the certification of Nord Stream 2, but says that it will not help Ukraine with weapons?

Germany, given its post-1945 history, has little desire to send its armed forces anywhere or to help with weapons.

Sanctions do not mean that only those who are sanctioned will suffer, those who impose them will also suffer. If Germany does not receive energy resources, its production may become uncompetitive. German politicians think about their electorate and their elections. If the electorate's standard of living is going to plummet, it will wonder why the country is getting involved in a conflict with other countries.

Russian Foreign Ministry officials denied until the last minute that they were preparing an invasion of Ukraine. Once again, the whole world saw that it was a lie...

The Chinese military theoretician Sun Tzu 2500 years ago and the Prussian military theoretician Carl von Clausewitz 200 years ago have said that war is all about deceiving the enemy. If it is decided to go to war, then the enemy must be deceived right up to the last moment before the war starts - so that he cannot understand the attacker's thoughts, motives, aims.

Should the West feel guilty that things have come to this insane point?

I don't think so. With February 24 we have reached a point where all the previous values, the previous system of international law based on human rights, on the equality of all states and so on, are over - we are back to geopolitics, interest politics and realpolitik. If the West stood up for its values, then we should all stand up for them together, with harsh sanctions, but we see that this is not happening. Volodymyr Zelensky has just said sadly that the Ukrainians have been left alone.

But US President Joe Biden is saying that there will now be severe sanctions, the likes Russia has never seen before...

I think that Russia considered the possible risks before launching the military operation and decided that they were acceptable. The Russians could not have been unaware that there would be sanctions.

Russian troops have seized the area around the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. Is there a reason to fear that Russia could do just about anything - even use nuclear weapons?

Putin said in his speech that if there is any "outside interference", these countries can expect a response more devastating than anything they have seen in their history. Just recently, on February 19, a joint exercise of the Russian and Belarusian nuclear and space forces took place. This was a clear signal of how far Russia is prepared to go.