Joe Biden urges Putin not to hope that the West will waver or fracture

On the last day of May, US President Joe Biden published a programmatic piece in the guest column of The New York Times on the US position on the Russia-Ukraine war. The title of the article says a lot: "What America will and will not do in Ukraine".

The article appeared after Biden's controversial statement that the long-awaited HIMARS missile systems would be delivered to Ukraine with reduced-range projectiles. Not missiles with maximum range, capable of striking targets up to 300 km away, but only 60-70 km away. Since the delivery of these missiles had been very strongly opposed shortly before by Anatoly Antonov, the Russian ambassador to the US, many observers (including myself) had accused Biden of bending over and allowing Putin to feel another diplomatic victory, albeit a small one.

Although such articles usually take quite a long time to write, and it was literally less than two days after Biden's missile remark, the tone of the article suggests that it is a response to precisely these accusations.

A large part of the article is addressed to Putin personally. For example, the phrase that “the United States will not try to bring about his [Putin’s] ouster in Moscow”. Biden is quite clearly trying to tell Putin: if you end the war in Ukraine in a way that is acceptable to the world, then we will not stop you from continuing to rule in the Kremlin as you please. You can beat and poison your opponents all you like, but do not try to enforce your rules outside your borders.

The article clearly states that "we do not seek a war between NATO and Russia... So long as the United States or our allies are not attacked, we will not be directly engaged in this conflict, either by sending American troops to fight in Ukraine or by attacking Russian forces. We are not encouraging or enabling Ukraine to strike beyond its borders. We do not want to prolong the war just to inflict pain on Russia."

These words could also be interpreted as another attempt to pander to the dragon, but I would not be so categorical. The overall tone of the article has been kept quite firm. It can rather be seen as one of the last offers - Putin, stop fantasizing about the "new world order", come down to earth and stop threatening with a nuclear button.

Biden touches on this Putin nuclear blackmail bluntly: "I know many people around the world are concerned about the use of nuclear weapons. We currently see no indication that Russia has intent to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, though Russia’s occasional rhetoric to rattle the nuclear saber is itself dangerous and extremely irresponsible. Let me be clear: Any use of nuclear weapons in this conflict on any scale would be completely unacceptable to us as well as the rest of the world and would entail severe consequences."

In diplomatic language, Biden seems to be saying quite clearly: we will not tolerate the use of nuclear weapons and the consequences will be severe. But it is not certain that this level of clarity will be enough for Putin. Even if Biden specifically says “let me be clear” it remains unclear what exactly is the meaning of “it would be completely unacceptable to us” and what will be the "severe consequences"?

It should be remembered that Putin's perception of the world around him is very different from that of the average Western politician. All these "severe consequences", "deep concerns", "high prices" have been mocked by Kremlin TV propagandists on a daily basis for years, so there is no certainty that Putin will take this warning from Biden adequately.

To some extent, it was similar rhetoric that largely misled Putin before the invasion of Ukraine. He was convinced that nothing more than a "very strong condemnation" from the West would follow, and he would probably not have been much mistaken if it had not been for the heroic resistance of Ukraine that the world did not expect, which Biden also notes in his article. Again, Biden's vague threat of "severe consequences" is unlikely to have any significant impact on Putin's plans. Much more reassuring are Biden's statements (based on intelligence) that there is no indication that Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons.

What does Biden promise for Ukraine? He makes it clear that the US is on Ukraine's side and strictly adheres to the principle of "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine", rejecting the idea, loudly touted by Putin and perhaps tacitly cherished by other European leaders [Macron?], that we, the big guys, should decide the results of this game ourselves and just tell them to Ukraine afterwards.

In the article, Biden articulates the ultimate goal of the US: "We want to see a democratic, independent, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine with the means to deter and defend itself against further aggression. As President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has said, ultimately this war ‘will only definitively end through diplomacy.’ Every negotiation reflects the facts on the ground. We have moved quickly to send Ukraine a significant amount of weaponry and ammunition so it can fight on the battlefield and be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table. That’s why I’ve decided that we will provide the Ukrainians with more advanced rocket systems and munitions that will enable them to more precisely strike key targets on the battlefield in Ukraine.

We will continue cooperating with our allies and partners on Russian sanctions, the toughest ever imposed on a major economy. We will continue providing Ukraine with advanced weaponry, including Javelin anti-tank missiles, Stinger antiaircraft missiles, powerful artillery and precision rocket systems, radars, unmanned aerial vehicles, Mi-17 helicopters and ammunition. We will also send billions more in financial assistance, as authorized by Congress."

As we can see, nothing is said about tanks, armored vehicles and fighter jets. In fact, there is no promise of the delivery of armaments that could militarily crush the Russian forces. What Biden is referring to are defensive rather than offensive weapons. On the other hand, heavy armored vehicles (although not the most advanced) are being supplied to Ukraine by European countries, so Biden's offer fits in with the overall message of the article to Putin. In particular, it is missing the phrase: Ukraine must win the war and Russia must lose. Instead, there is the phrase that Ukraine should be given a better position at the negotiating table, which means, among other things: Putin, calm down and relax. If you behave sensibly, this will end not in The Hague but at a negotiating table somewhere in Istanbul.

Biden outlines the US strategic vision of the situation: "Standing by Ukraine in its hour of need is not just the right thing to do. It is in our vital national interests to ensure a peaceful and stable Europe and to make it clear that might does not make right. If Russia does not pay a heavy price for its actions, it will send a message to other would-be aggressors [above all China] that they too can seize territory and subjugate other countries. It will put the survival of other peaceful democracies at risk. And it could mark the end of the rules-based international order and open the door to aggression elsewhere, with catastrophic consequences the world over."

Biden concludes by pledging to stand with the Ukrainian people in their fight against the enemies of freedom and calls on Putin not to make the mistake of expecting "that we will waver or fracture in the months to come". This will not happen, Biden promises. Unfortunately, almost a month of delaying the sixth package of EU sanctions and its unconvincing content lets Putin hope for exactly that - that the West, or at least part of it, will indeed start to waver and fracture under the pressure of inflation and energy prices. But that is the subject of another article.