Latvian government prepares for a flow of migrants from Ukraine

The Latvian government is in a hurry to make operational changes to laws and other regulations in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Ministry of Defense is proposing to mobilize National Guards in a simplified way, by placing them on active service by ministerial order, and to introduce criminal liability for draft evasion. The Ministry of the Interior has drawn up a plan to take in Ukrainian migrants, which risks allowing pro-Kremlin people into the country.

Readers can follow current events in Ukraine, as well as the reaction of the international community and Latvia, on the portal nra.lv, but there are also issues and events that remain off the hot news tapes because they are not reported. But in the context of what is happening, they are no less important. For example, the agenda items for the Cabinet of Ministers meeting on February 24 marked "secret". Judging by the speakers, there is no doubt that the protection of Latvia's borders, the possible admission of Ukrainian migrants and the mobilization of economic sectors were discussed in the safe negotiating room. And this is evidenced by various documents on the government's agenda, with and without the stamp of secrecy.

Defending independence is a duty

The Ministry of Defense is promoting amendments to the National Guard of the Republic of Latvia Law, which will significantly raise the bar for the duties of the National Guard. Firstly, criminal liability will be introduced for evasion of the draft to active service. Just as it is for reserve soldiers. And also for desertion - as it is for soldiers. As explained in the annotation of the draft law, under the current regulation, in the event of a state of emergency or wartime, the status of the National Guards does not change and criminal liability for evasion of service does not arise: "Since in the above cases any Latvian citizen is obliged to defend the independence, freedom and democratic order of the state (see Article 5 of the National Security Law), it is not justified to separate them into groups, providing for a different status, service regulation and liability (criminal liability) for them."

Simplified mobilization procedure

According to official data, there are currently 8,300 National Guard members. Not all of them actively participate in the volunteer training and service tasks, and in a real war, such voluntarism is unacceptable. According to the changes envisaged in the law, the mobilization of the National Guard will be different from the mobilization of other Latvian citizens, i.e. instead of being called up for active service, the National Guard will be fast-tracked into active service without being called up. This is necessary to enable the National Guard to be involved in national defense at an early stage of the threat, before a state of emergency is declared or wartime is declared. Mobilization could be complete throughout the national territory, partial in a specific region, or a state of high alert, where a serviceman must be reachable within six hours. Failure to comply with this condition will result in administrative penalties. The draft law and the accompanying package can be consulted HERE.

The government is waiting for the refugee flow

So much for the current impact of the war in Ukraine on the National Guard. But there is another issue on the government's agenda that will affect the army as a potential provider of support, but more so other services and society at large. When there is war, civilians evacuate to safer areas. And the Latvian government expects that there will be Ukrainians who will also want to come to their relatives in Latvia. In a closed session, the Cabinet of Ministers approved a "Plan of measures in case of mass arrival of persons from Ukraine in Latvia". The Ministry of the Interior expects 10,000 people to arrive. The Ministry of Defense has also been ordered to provide the same number of face masks. Of course, Latvia must support Ukraine and its people in every way, but at the same time it must also be aware of the risks: it is very likely that the migrants will include people disloyal to Ukraine, and therefore also to Latvia, and who would wish to see Russia invade Latvia as well. Jana Streļeca, a representative of the Ukrainian aid society, points this out in a conversation with Neatkarīgā. Latvia does not need to increase the number of people loyal to Russia here, because we do not lack them in Riga, Daugavpils and Rēzekne. "We are preparing for an apocalypse here, with huge masses crossing our border, as if Poland and Lithuania cannot take them in. But in the meantime, the elite districts of Kyiv are already empty, and it is very likely that pro-Kremlin people have already arrived here."

Planning for ten thousand

Families with children would be the first to flee Ukraine to their relatives in Latvia. However, the Ukrainian community in Latvia has not integrated, does not know the Latvian language, and this is a problem that needs special consideration. It would be a mistake of the greatest kind to put these Ukrainian children in so-called minority schools. The many Ukrainian national-cultural associations in Latvia are also far from monolithic in their convictions about the need to defend their ethnic homeland from Russian aggression. Unfortunately, there are those who act as agents of Kremlin influence. In Jana Streļeca' view, Latvia should prepare for a less apocalyptic scenario with regard to the upcoming flow of refugees, but should take into account the fact that people who are currently leaving Ukraine are not Ukrainian patriots and do not intend to defend their country from Russian invasion. They will consequently become an additional risk factor for the Latvian state.

Perhaps the government is also counting on this, because the action plan, alongside the reception and accommodation algorithms, also includes "Measures related to preventing the entry into the Republic of Latvia of foreign fighters or other persons posing a threat to the security of Latvia", as well as "Strengthening immigration control measures in the vicinity of the state border between the Republic of Latvia and the Republic of Lithuania". The total amount earmarked for the reception of Ukrainian migrants exceeds €56 million. International assistance and support will also be requested if necessary. The government's plan for the reception of Ukrainian migrants, which has been submitted to the Saeima for approval, can be found HERE.

No direct threat to Latvia

There is currently no direct military threat to Latvia. This is according to the Ministry of Defense and was also announced by Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš after yesterday's extraordinary cabinet meeting. NATO reinforcements have already arrived in Latvia, including soldiers, helicopters and jet fighters. Consultations on further strengthening of Europe's eastern flank have taken place under Article 4 of the NATO Treaty. And it is also a significant factor that the largest Russian forces are now concentrated on the invasion of Ukraine. So now we all need to keep calm and prepare for turmoil together.

***

STATEMENT BY THE MINISTRY OF DEFENSE

Attention citizens!

Citizens are urged not to worry as there is no direct military threat to Latvia. The Ministry of Defense assures that the National Armed Forces are ready to respond to any threat scenario should the security of the Latvian population and the sovereignty of the State be threatened.

"At the same time, every citizen must also take care of his or her own and family's preparedness for various crisis situations, as they can affect our everyday life and comfort," Defense Minister Pabriks calls on the population to prepare for crisis situations. "By strengthening the preparedness of every citizen for various crisis situations, we strengthen the security of the whole society and the country!"

Crises can be of different nature and can come unexpectedly, such as natural disasters, power cuts, internet outages, they can create a chain reaction that can directly disrupt everyday life.

This is why the Ministry of Defense has informed the public in advance about preparations for the first 72 hours and the need for everyone to be able to support their loved ones, take care of their homes, and identify in advance the means of communication and reliable sources of information. The booklet "What to do in the case of crisis" in Latvian, English and Russian and information on crisis preparedness can be found HERE.