As sensational for 99% of the Latvian population is the fact that this year, in 2021, a census has already taken place in Latvia, as predictable were its results that since the previous census in 2011, the population has decreased by 177 thousand. Figuratively speaking, three large cities have died out - Daugavpils, Liepāja and Rēzekne.
Periodic censuses by finding and visiting people's places of residence in the territory of Latvia had been self-evident and seemingly unchangeable in the last 150 years. However, 2011 put an end to it with two big scandals.
The first is that the government of Valdis Dombrovskis tried to cancel the census by announcing that there was no money to organize it. Neatkarīgā also had to turn against such austerity. In the December 12, 2009 publication "We can count animals, but not humans!?" (because the same government had indeed given money for the farm animal census) Neatkarīgā explained that "objectively, census data is an indispensable source of information that is necessary for both state institutions and local governments, as well as for companies"; warned that the government was going to break the law on the census; reminded about the post-war censuses when governments had even less money. A government meeting was held, at which the Head of the Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) Aija Žīgure rebuked V. Dombrovskis for attempting not to fulfill Latvia's obligations to other nations, including Latvian creditors. In the end, the money was given to the statisticians and the census took place.
The second is that the results of the census forced us to register the decline of the number of recognized population in the country from 2,208,444 to 2,067,887. The difference between these figures is 140,513, whose absence from Latvia or from this world in general had to be recognized in an instant. Even before that, statisticians had reported that mortality exceeded births and emigration exceeded immigration, but the numbers of these problems remained unreported. In this way, the statisticians also shot themselves in the foot, because it turned out that they had not been able to notice very significant discrepancies between their data and reality for years. It has been speculated that perhaps the true figure was not 2 067 887, that the number that crossed over the 2 million line was created by adding to the people encountered by the census enumerators those who applied via the internet; the application deadlines were changed several times, i.e., extended, and the goal of showing a population exceeding two million in Latvia was achieved.
A few years later, statisticians began to atone for their sins. They developed computer programs that browsed information on people's interactions with public authorities in various public registers (who studied, who claimed compensation for tax overpayments, etc.). If no data appeared in the reporting year for a person, statisticians assumed that they did not live in Latvia. As a result, the number of people fell below the two million line in March 2014. The next 100,000 people were lost by August 2020.
The data obtained from the start of the processing of the registers seemed very reliable, although the allegations against them continued and still continue to be made. As soon as people are given the opportunity to comment online on statistical publications on population change, claims arise that the country does not want to know and does not know the real population decline, as many people have left the country without informing the authorities about their departure. In this way, emotions are expressed that prevent noticing that statisticians have said that they have taken these unannounced departures into account. The accusations do not concern the CSB, but the Office of Citizenship and Migration Affairs (OCMA) of the Ministry of the Interior, which names 2,069,089 people as the population on January 1 this year. Of course, the number of the population reported by the OCMA in the country as a whole and in local governments is also decreasing, but after the 2011 census, the about 200 thousand people difference between the real and declared population has not changed.
OCMA data are needed for state and local government self-promotion. There are hardly any local governments in Latvia that display the number of inhabitants on their websites according to the latest CSB publications. Instead, they show the figures not as they are, but as they were in the OCMA database five years ago, because not updating the declining figures is also a way for politicians at different levels to pretend that what they want is the reality. Politicians have no desire to amend the Population Register Law, the implementation of which with preparing misleading figures is entrusted to the OCMA.
Politicians would not be opposed to being elected with votes from abroad, the owners of which are not in Latvia and therefore cannot burden the politicians. In return, politicians promise that those listed in the PLMP database can return to Latvia even after 20 years and live here the very next day as if they had never left.
The return of those who have left is commonplace. Now remigrants form the largest group of all those who move to Latvia at all, but remigrants and all other immigrants are still less than emigrants.
In 2020, the population decline has accelerated compared to 2019. As a percentage of the total population, the decline has accelerated from -0.64% to -0.76%. A Covid-year appropriate increase in mortality due to Covid-19 itself and the disorganization of medical care has resulted in a noticeable predominance of 0.59% for deaths and 0.17% for emigration. These difficult-to-understand figures are illustrated by statistics with the example that the population decline during the last year is comparable to the current population of Cēsis.
Instead of people, Latvia has to make do with the feeling that at least the remaining ones are counted correctly and there is no threat of the kind of discoveries that had to be made at the beginning of 2012, when the main results of the 2011 census were announced.
The results of the 2021 census, i.e., of the repeated and special verification of information found in the registers have turned out to be 1,893,223 people on January 1 this year.
The result is practically the same as it would have been without the census, as statisticians had found 1,893,729 people in the usual way of browsing the registers. Yes, the direction of the error is the same as it was in 2011, but it still makes a huge difference whether the error involves 140,513 or 506 people.
*****
Be the first to read interesting news from Latvia and the world by joining our Telegram and Signal channels.