Vladimir Putin launched gas war against EU two months too late, so the West won't be intimidated

On March 23, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would only accept payment in Russian rubles for natural gas supplies to countries that are "unfriendly to Russia", as all European Union member states have been declared to be, promising in this case to deliver gas at the volumes stipulated in previously concluded contracts.

This was immediately opposed by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who said that it was a "unilateral decision" in clear breach of the agreements already concluded and that it should be seen as an attempt by Russia to circumvent the sanctions.

On March 25, EU leaders agreed on voluntary joint purchases of natural gas and liquefied natural gas to lower the price for consumers, to avoid a situation where richer EU Member States overbid and bypass poorer countries, and to prevent attempts to divide European unity.

Three days later, a meeting of G7 energy ministers unanimously rejected Russia's demand to pay in rubles for imported gas.

Yesterday, without any explanation, the flow of Russian natural gas through the pipeline to Germany was stopped and the German government was forced to activate the early warning level for an energy crisis, because of fears that Russia could cut off gas supplies to Europe. For his part, Vladimir Putin yesterday postponed his order to require payments for natural gas supplies to be made only in Russian rubles, which was due to take effect today.

It should be noted here, however, that Putin probably intended to start the war against Ukraine about two months earlier. If the invasion of Ukraine had begun in the first days of January and the reaction of the Western world had been as sharp as it is now, then the blackmail of Russian gas against Europe would have taken place in the coldest part of winter. Then it would be a threat to leave the inhabitants of German cities without heat and with limited access to electricity. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine was postponed until after the Winter Olympics. Consequently, Putin launched the gas war against Europe two months late, in the last days of March. Russia launched its gas war at a time when heating is no longer needed in southern Europe, and could be switched off in central Europe within the next two weeks without any major consequences. So, if Putin does carry through with his threat and stops natural gas supplies to the EU now, it will certainly be unpleasant and cause a great deal of inconvenience, but it will not be on the scale of the catastrophe that it could have been if the inhabitants of German cities were left without heat in mid-February. Now the EU leadership and the leaders of the Member States have six months to prepare for a wide range of scenarios before this year's new heating season starts in October.

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