The efforts to legally legitimize the Russian occupied territories in Eastern Ukraine by recognizing the statehood of the self-proclaimed Donbas "republics" have certain implications, which Russian President Vladimir Putin outlined in his address to the nation on Monday evening.
The first thing that caught the eye was that the so-called "republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk were barely mentioned in the address. Since the Russian President's address, which was broadcast on all TV channels, was nominally aligned with the recognition of these "republics", this was more than a little strange. For almost an hour, Putin lectured on the history of Ukraine, on its "artificial" origins, on its failed (after 1991) and then (after 2014) illegal development under the leadership of bandits, oligarchs and terrorists. This was not about some individual regions of Ukraine, but about Ukrainian statehood as a whole.
Putin's speech was permeated in every sentence, every word, every intonation by one central idea: the Ukrainian state is a dangerous, illegitimate creation for us, for Russia, which must be eliminated. Otherwise, NATO bases, missiles and an existential threat. It's either us or them. So the main question that has attracted attention is: what will this speech, which was basically a blatant declaration and justification for war, lead to?
The end of this speech by Putin must be quoted in full and exactly word for word, because it was precisely because of these phrases that the audience was tortured for an hour by being made to listen to Putin's "arguments".
"We want those who seized and continue to hold power in Kyiv to immediately stop hostilities. Otherwise, the responsibility for the possible continuation of the bloodshed will lie entirely on the conscience of Ukraine’s ruling regime."
There is no doubt that this final phrase was polished by Putin and Patrushev, syllable by syllable. Note that there is no Ukrainian statehood or legitimate authority here. There is "Ukraine’s ruling regime" who hold power "in Kyiv" (not in Ukraine). Nothing specific is demanded, except "to immediately stop hostilities". What does that mean? Achtung! Achtung! Any resistance is useless and will be severely punished!
What can we conclude from this speech, and from the recording of the Security Council meeting broadcast on television for the first time in Russian history? In the Kremlin's view, the existence of Ukrainian statehood is incompatible with Russia's security and threatens not only its development but its sovereign existence. The question of the abolition of Ukrainian statehood is non-negotiable. Whether this will be done peacefully, as in the case of the incorporation of the Baltic States in 1940, or by force, depends on whether Ukraine "immediately ceases hostilities" or "continues the bloodshed". In the latter case, "the responsibility... will lie entirely on the conscience of Ukraine’s ruling regime". If this is not a declaration of war, what is?
The arrival of a large military contingent in Donetsk suggests that an invasion of Ukraine is probably a matter of days. A possible scenario could be as follows: first, an invasion of eastern Ukraine with the initially stated aim of "liberating" the territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions that has hitherto been under Ukrainian control. Then, as Ukrainian forces are concentrated on this front, an ugly provocation in the style of Patrushev, with the idea that we warned Ukraine, but they turned out to be even bigger bastards than we thought, so now let them get "what they deserve", followed by a large-scale, full-scale invasion from three sides already. The aim is to take Kyiv, take over the system of state administration, create a puppet government and, at least initially, remodel Ukrainian statehood after the current Belarusian model.
To avoid any misunderstandings, I would stress that this is only a possible scenario. No one can say at the moment what will happen in reality.
I have mentioned Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Russian Security Council, in two places. I should explain why. In my opinion, he is the only person in the Kremlin (perhaps in the whole world) whom Putin regards as his equal, perhaps even superior on certain issues. I would remind you that Putin's catapult from a little-known civil servant of small stature to the cosmic heights of a charismatic national leader was made possible by the second Chechen war, which began after very bizarre bombings of high-rise buildings in Moscow, on Guryanov Street, on the Kashira highway and in Volgodonsk.
But the strangest event of that time happened in Ryazan, where vigilant residents had noticed suspicious people carrying bags in the basement of their house and reported "where needed". The bags turned out to contain the explosive hexogen. An investigation was launched, which gave hopes of getting to the masterminds of previous bombings, but then suddenly the then head of the Federal Security Service (FSS), Patrushev, made the sensational announcement that it was an FSS training exercise and that the bags contained sugar. This gave rise to the phrase "Ryazan sugar", which has a close conceptual connection with the words "1999 house bombing" and "Patrushev".
There is a version that it is Patrushev who does (perhaps even initiates) the things that Putin himself would not want to do (give orders or instructions) on his own behalf. What these "things" might be is anyone's guess. The broadcast of the Security Council meeting implicitly confirmed this version, as all members had to express their position on the Donbas issue. And without any papers, in their own words. Just like in an exam, but instead of a professor, a gang leader sits and evaluates who is trustworthy.
So they tried their best to show respect to the godfather/tsar/president. The worst was Sergey Naryshkin, the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, who, in a trembling voice, with a dry mouth, stammered, earning public ridicule and a light mockery from his boss. There was no glass of water in the rostrum with which to wet the mouth that had gone dry from anxiety. The fact that it was not a live broadcast and Naryshkin's "disgrace" could easily have been cut out, but was not, suggests the prevailing atmosphere in the Kremlin. Clearly, there is no mercy there. Just like there isn't among the "pacans" (gang members, in thieves' jargon), in the words of Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
It was Patrushev's speech that differed significantly from the "performances" of all the members of the Security Council. He was the only one who showed independence, and his voice even had a "teacher-like" tone. No one else dared to speak to Putin in such an intonation, not even close. This suggests Patrushev's special place in the Kremlin hierarchy. Definitely something like Beria's place with Stalin.
What is next? Much will depend on the position of the West, which, whatever it may be, has changed a lot in recent months. Of course, there is still wavering between the supposed Chamberlain and Churchill, the difference being that until recently Chamberlain's position was overwhelmingly dominant, but now more and more politicians are falling into step with Churchill.
There is little doubt about Putin's own position. On social networks, many are horrified by Putin's speech. They have obviously been living in a completely different information space if they were surprised by this speech because Putin did not say anything new. He spoke and behaved exactly as he has been speaking and behaving all these years since 2014. At no time has he tried to be a dove of peace or demonstrated a desire to curry favor with the West. It is another thing that the West, despite its talk of a policy of containment of Russia, has for a long time been trying to persuade Putin to let us all live amicably.
We are now at a historical moment which has been best summed up by Vladimir Pastukhov, a professor at University College London: "You know, as Mayakovsky said, 'I am equally a candidate for the beggar's chair and the President's chair'. We are equally candidates for everything to end in nothing and for everything to end in a third world war."