Lukashenko is taunting Europe. Europe is sleeping. For now
The situation on the Belarusian-Lithuanian border has been significantly deteriorating since April, but it has become absolutely crazy in recent weeks. Every day, more than a hundred illegal border crossers cross the border between the two countries with the obvious blessing of the Belarusian authorities. The number of direct flights on the Baghdad-Minsk route has increased from two flights a week to four. There is a reasonable suspicion that these "refugees" are being transported in an organized manner to places where illegal border crossings are taking place.
On Thursday, the Baltic defense ministers acknowledged in a video conference that the migration crisis on the Lithuanian-Belarusian border is a hybrid attack of the Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko against the Baltic states, NATO and the European Union (EU). Ministers agreed to coordinate their actions and responses, both between the three countries and internationally.
Lithuanian Minister of the Interior Agnė Bilotaitė and Minister of Foreign Affairs Gabrielius Landsbergis have also acknowledged that this infiltration of “refugees” into the EU is an element of hybrid war. The latter put it most bluntly: "Europe lacks an effective migration policy, but maybe Lithuania will become the straw that will break the camel's back and we will eventually come to an agreement - either the EU protects its borders and is able to withstand hybrid attacks, or just supplies tents." The mention of tents is an indirect reproach to Latvia, whose Minister of the Interior, a well-known leftist activist Marija Golubeva, promised to supply Lithuania... not with barbed wire to encircle the 679-kilometer Lithuanian-Belarusian border, but tents and blankets for the comfort of the "poor refugees".
Belarus and EU policy needs to be discussed separately here. Lukashenko acts according to his understanding of what politics should look like and according to his system of good and evil. In this system, it is impossible that the people not only do not love him but even do not want him to continue to rule. In this system, if a Belarusian citizen is against him, then he can only be a scumbag paid by other countries. One who is ready to sell not only his mother for Judas pennies, but even to betray Lukashenko himself.
Ahead of last year's presidential election on August 9, Lukashenko saw the financiers of the conspiracy against him in both the West and the East. Depending on the current situation and mood. The main enemy has now crystallized. It is the West, where Poland and Lithuania play the role of "zapevalas" (lead choir singers). Therefore, if the West is making trouble, they must respond with the same. Make trouble for them. True, Lukashenko's response arsenal is rather scarce. From this range of weapons, he has chosen, according to his mental nature, to flood migrants in Europe.
But it is not for nothing that Lukashenko is called a potato führer, a director of a sovkhoz and similar mocking words. This flood of migrants, although damaging to Lithuania, to Europe, is not far-sighted, as it is even more damaging to the Lukashenko regime itself. How exactly?
The reaction of the West, and of the EU in particular, to the events of recent years in Russia and Belarus reveals an important feature of the West. The West is quite indifferent to what authoritarian regimes do in their homes. Yes, they again express deep concerns about human rights abuses, strong condemnation of the regime's inhumanity and arrests of dissidents, etc., but these verbal accusations are mostly it.
When Lukashenko launched the repressive apparatus at full capacity after the presidential election last year, many political observers expected Europe not to tolerate such terror in the middle of the continent and a wave of sanctions to crash on the Lukashenko regime. However, no serious sanctions that could really shake the regime followed. Yes, the official results of the presidential election announced by the authorities were not recognized, and Lukashenko did not become a full-fledged president of Belarus in the eyes of the international community. However, he has long been accustomed to the fact that he is not invited anywhere and is called a dictator. He will not be intimidated by such "sanctions".
This year, the EU had practically forgotten about the struggle of Belarus and its democratic forces against the regime. Also about the many political prisoners and the repression of the independent media. The issue of Belarus had disappeared not only from media headlines but to some extent even from the agenda of professional political circles. In this style, the Belarussian regime could slowly keep rotting for a long time. However, the already dormant anthill was re-ignited by the forced landing of a Ryanair plane in Minsk. Europe can turn a blind eye to the atrocities of the siloviki in the Okrestina solitary confinement, but they must react loudly and convincingly if anything happens that can be called air piracy.
The landing of the Athens-Vilnius plane in Minsk was such an event that one could not pretend to be blind and deaf. Very impressive sanctions have been announced, including sectoral sanctions, which have been desperately called for by opponents of the regime for almost a year. However, until these sanctions were finalized (accepted by all Member States), they have traditionally softened, as many in the EU have interests with Belarus that they do not want to sacrifice. In addition, the EU has almost no control mechanism to verify compliance with these sanctions. Everything happens mostly according to the integrity of each company. However, it must be acknowledged that coming from the EU, even these sanctions are a lot. Of course, they would not kill the Lukashenko regime, but it would certainly speed up its rot.
However, Lukashenko's self-destructive tendencies turn out to be even stronger than Europe's reluctance to deal with this dictator they have long gotten tired of. He could have sat quietly, ground the internal protests into dust with the help of siloviki, thrown into prisons or driven abroad those who would not accept him, and continued to portray a president. But no. Thousands of "refugees" need to be brought from Iraq to spite Lithuania. But Lithuania is not a lonely island in the world's political ocean the way Belarus is. Lithuania is an EU Member State and can demand that Brussels help it defend properly against Lukashenko's actions. The fact that the EU is still asleep and has not reacted sharply enough should not mislead anyone. There will be a reaction, and it will not be pleasant for Lukashenko. No matter how much the West does not want to burden itself with new sanctions, Lukashenko himself is pushing the West on what they do not want to do.
Of course, there is a possibility that the EU will continue to sleep like a bear in hibernation. Namely, instead of imposing such sanctions on the Lukashenko regime that he will bitterly regret this operation of Baghdad "refugees" and feel remorse that he has started something like this, it will continue to cowardly send tents and blankets to Lithuania so that the refugees do not have to freeze. Lukashenko hopes for such a reaction. Somehow I don't want to believe that he will be right.